Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
