Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
